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Apple Cutting Back 2026 Hardware Shipments Due to Memory Shortage

Apple is scaling back its hardware shipment plans in 2026 due to DRAM shortages, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today.

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Kuo made the comment in a longer piece disputing a recent report suggesting TSMC has $1 billion of unpackaged processors waiting on memory chips that Apple has been unable to secure. Kuo said Apple plans processor production at least three months in advance based on the amount of memory expected to be available, and it does not have TSMC build large numbers of wafers ahead of time. He believes there are indeed memory shortages, but no situation where TSMC is sitting on unused inventory.

In other words, tight memory supply is real. But my understanding is that there has been no dramatic scenario in which TSMC first built up US$1 billion of WIP and then had to wait for memory to arrive before packaging could proceed. TSMC and Apple are both known for world-class execution, and such a dramatic development would be unusual given how closely the two companies coordinate their supply chains.

Memory shortages have already affected the Mac Studio, Mac mini, and MacBook Air, and it sounds like ongoing supply problems will also impact the upcoming iPhone models. Memory makers have been prioritizing supply for AI data centers because contracts for those chips are more profitable, leaving less capacity available for consumer device chips.

A lack of supply has driven prices up and led to long wait times for some products. Apple raised prices on all of its Macs and iPads in June, and iPhone prices are expected to go up in September.

The iPhone 18 Pro, ‌iPhone 18 Pro‌ Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra could be available in limited quantities because of the memory problems, and we expect the devices will sell out during the preorder period.

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Top Rated Comments

3 weeks ago

Yesterday was already too late to think about their own. 700% cumulative increase in just 2 years it’s just beginning and at the moment it’s nowhere nears the end.
Until OpenAI, Antrophic etc get hacked, whacked and hammered by their own famous models.Personally can’t wait for it to happen.
Best thing for humanity would if this worthless Ai would just come crashing down so we can move on to the next get rich quick scheme that the billionaires are using.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
3 weeks ago
I can't wait for all the posts next month "What? My ship date is January? But I pre ordered it as soon as it became available!"
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
WilliApple Avatar
3 weeks ago
Whos gonna use the data centers?
The consumers
Just give us memory.
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Sosab123 Avatar
3 weeks ago

Are there any memory industry insiders on this forum? Are any of the memory suppliers working on significantly expanding production capacity?

I realise that fabs take a significant amount of time and money to build so if yes (to my question above) it wouldn’t be a quick fix but I’m wondering if new fabs planned or under construction are now on a much bigger scale than would maybe have been planned a year or two ago in order to better match supply with this explosion in demand.

I’ve read many posts from people longing for the AI bubble to burst so that some sanity returns to the memory market but I’m wondering whether there might be an alternative light at the end of this tunnel - the supply-side adapting to this new world order.

Edit: Sorry, I missed previous posts asking the same question. I’m still very interested in any detailed answers though in terms of when sufficient extra capacity might come on line to ease the current situation.
Honestly even if 10 new fabs magically appeared tomorrow I dont think we’d suddenly have a memory surplus. The AI giants would just eat the additional supply and we’d probably end up right back where we started.


The thing about AI is that there really isnt much of a point where “more memory” stops being useful in the same way it does with normal consumer hardware. Bigger models, longer context windows, larger batches, more concurrent inference, bigger KV caches etc all create ways to use more memory.


Obviously there are diminishing returns eventually. AI doesnt have an infinite appetite for memory. But as memory becomes available and cheaper it can also make workloads that werent previously economical or practical worth doing.


So I dont think the question is really “when will enough fabs come online to fix the shortage?”


Its more like


can the memory industry increase supply faster than the AI industry can figure out new ways to consume it?


And honestly I’m not convinced it can.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
3 weeks ago
I CANNOT WAIT for this ******** AI Bubble to bust and burst HARD. I'm so bloody sick of freaking AI. I'm constantly seeing ads on the train for AI this and AI that. It's just nauseating already. Go away.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)
JPack Avatar
3 weeks ago

Are there any memory industry insiders on this forum? Are any of the memory suppliers working on significantly expanding production capacity?

I realise that fabs take a significant amount of time and money to build so if yes (to my question above) it wouldn’t be a quick fix but I’m wondering if new fabs planned or under construction are now on a much bigger scale than would maybe have been planned a year or two ago in order to better match supply with this explosion in demand.

I’ve read many posts from people longing for the AI bubble to burst so that some sanity returns to the memory market but I’m wondering whether there might be an alternative light at the end of this tunnel - the supply-side adapting to this new world order.

Edit: Sorry, I missed previous posts asking the same question. I’m still very interested in any detailed answers though in terms of when sufficient extra capacity might come on line to ease the current situation.
In short, no. Most DRAM companies have plans to expand modestly, but not aggressively. This is because they know history.

Uninformed posters who have never studied history are asking why Apple doesn't go in the DRAM business.

The short answer is, there's been 2 or 3 dozen DRAM companies over the past 40 years. We're basically down to 4 today. Everyone from Europeans to Japanese to Taiwanese have played in the game. Forgotten DRAM players like Hitachi, NEC, Mitsubishi, Motorola, Acer, Intel, Siemens, etc. It's a dog eat dog business with regular boom and bust cycles.
Score: 5 Votes (Like | Disagree)

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