Earlier this week, a federal court ruled that Google's lucrative default search engine deal with Apple violates antitrust law. Google plans to appeal the decision and the court hasn't provided insight into how it plans to address Google's monopoly, but there is a chance Google will no longer be able to pay to be the default search engine on Apple devices.
Google's Payments to Apple
For many years, Google has paid Apple billions to be the primary search engine on the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. When you use the Safari browser, Google Search is the default option, and that's because Google pays for the privilege. You can pop into the Settings app and swap to a different search engine like Bing or DuckDuckGo, but most people don't bother with that.
It's a deal that's lucrative for both Apple and Google. In 2022, for example, Google paid Apple $20 billion, which is around 36 percent of the total revenue that it earns from Safari searches. So Apple gets a big payout each year, and Google gets major reach from Apple's huge install base.
In its antitrust ruling, the court suggested that Apple has the "financial, technological, and human resources" to develop its own search engine, but has not done so because of the money that it receives from Google. The court acknowledges that Apple would have to take on other risks like risking brand reputation for an inferior product, but states that the revenue share payments "unquestionably" keep Apple "on the sidelines of search."
Apple Search Engine Rumors
So if Apple's deal with Google goes away, will Apple enter the search market?
Past rumors indicate that Apple has worked on a search engine. In November 2022, The Information said that Apple had been working on a web search engine since 2022, but Apple was still at least four years away from launching such a product. That report suggested Apple could use its own search product work as leverage during renegotiations with Google.
Apple has a dedicated search team because there are robust search tools for Spotlight, Siri Suggestions, and content provided by Siri to answer user queries. It's possible that Apple could spin some of its Spotlight technology into a web search feature in the future, or that it could leverage Apple Intelligence. With AI and the changes coming to Siri in 2024 and 2025, iPhone, iPad, and Mac users may start to transition away from traditional web searches anyway, relying more on other search tools.
Apple definitely has the money to enter into the search engine market, and the background is there too with Safari, but there are alternatives.
Other Search Engines
During the antitrust case, documents revealed that Microsoft tried for years to get Apple to switch over to Bing as the default search engine on Safari. Microsoft even pushed for a sale of Bing to Apple, but Apple did not think that Bing could compete with Google in "quality and capabilities."
Microsoft even offered to share 100 percent of Bing's revenue with Apple, but it was a no go. Apple's services chief Eddy Cue testified that there "wasn't a valid alternative" to Google, and that Apple has stuck with Google because "we've always thought it was the best." Trial documents further revealed that Cue believed that there was "no price that Microsoft could ever offer [Apple] to make the switch," with Cue blaming Bing's "inferior quality" and the "business risk of making a change."
Apple executives also discussed DuckDuckGo, specifically as the default for private browsing mode, but said it is "not a great search engine" and "not good enough."
Possible Search Solutions
Google could be told that it is not allowed to pay to be the default search engine on Safari, removing Apple's financial incentive to prioritize Google's search engine.
In Europe, the Digital Markets Act requires Apple to allow iPhone users to select a browser as their default during the device setup process, providing alternatives to Safari. The U.S. court could require a similar setup process for search engines, allowing users to choose a search engine from a list when activating a device for the first time.
In this situation, rather than Apple automatically setting Google Search as the default search engine, users would make the selection themselves at device setup. There would be no need for the extra step of opening the Settings app and finding the Safari options to swap search engines.
The lawsuit targets Google, so it's unlikely that the court would force Apple to provide search engine choice in this situation, but Apple might be willing to offer that option if it doesn't have a financial reason not to do so.
Appeals
Google is going to appeal the court's decision, so the deal between Apple and Google isn't in immediate danger because the rest of the lawsuit needs to play out.
Wrap Up
If the United States Justice Department and courts are correct that Apple's deal with Google is holding Apple back from developing its own search engine, putting a stop to payments could spur Apple to develop a search product.
It's clear that Apple is unlikely to establish a partnership with another company like Bing or even purchase a search engine because it sees all of the non-Google options as not good enough. Based on what we know right now, Apple's best move without Google revenue could be to get into search on its own.
Apple's projections (per the lawsuit) estimate that it could lose more than $12 billion in revenue during the first five years after a separation from Google, plus it would cost billions to build and maintain a search engine. Apple would need to create an ad platform and work to monetize searches, and Apple would need to make sure that it developed a search engine able to rival what Google can do.
