Initial wait times for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro models in the pre-order phase are "lukewarm," according to GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu, who has subsequently trimmed his production estimates for both the company's Pro lineup and the foldable iPhone Duo.
iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders opened on September 12 in the U.S. and many other countries, and there's now a 3-4 week wait time for iPhone 18 Pro Max models with 256GB and 512GB storage across all colors in the U.S., as well as for Burgundy 1TB models. Elsewhere, Pu cites 2-3 weeks for the Pro Max in Glacier across 256GB and 512GB options in China.
Otherwise, Pu sees initial demand less strong for the Black and Glacier 1TB Pro Max models, quoting 1-2 weeks wait times in the U.S. Meanwhile, the 1TB Pro Max option in Silver, most 2TB Pro Max configurations, and nearly every iPhone 18 Pro model are available immediately on launch day this Friday, with Burgundy 256GB pre-orders the only iPhone 18 Pro exception.
Pu believes the softer-than-expected demand is due to limited spec upgrades and higher pricing, particularly for the larger storage tiers. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 in the U.S. and the iPhone 18 Pro Max starts at $1,299, with prices as high as $2,399 and $2,499 for the 2TB models, respectively.
Pu also expects the iPhone 18 Pro Max to lose some buyers to the iPhone Duo, whose pre-orders begin on October 16, with availability from October 23. Prices for the Duo start at $1,999 for the 256GB model, rising to $3,199 for the 2TB option.
On the supply side, Pu has lowered his iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production estimate to 72 million units because of constraints associated with the new variable aperture camera. Pu also separately cut his 2026 build estimate for the iPhone Duo from 7 million units to 6 million, which he puts down to production challenges with the hinge.
Pu's latest investor note maintains a Hold rating on Apple, with a $369 price target.
