Apple's iPhone shipments are expected to grow nearly 4% in 2025, lifting the entire smartphone industry as rivals face slower demand and regional setbacks, according to new data from IDC.
IDC has raised its 2025 worldwide smartphone forecast, projecting 1% year-over-year growth to 1.24 billion units, compared with its earlier May forecast of just 0.6%. The iPhone is the main driver behind the increase, which is now expected to expand 3.9% this year. IDC noted that without Apple, the global smartphone market would be flat or in decline.
The resilience of the iPhone stands in contrast to weakening Android sales, particularly in China. IDC emphasized that trade-in offers, installment plans, and customer loyalty have enabled Apple to sustain upgrades in an environment where many users now keep smartphones for four years or more. The firm said most iPhone customers remain committed to iOS, a factor that has helped Apple expand its share even as other manufacturers pursue lower-cost volume.
Average selling prices in the smartphone industry are forecast to increase 5% in 2025, with overall value rising 6%. IDC attributed this to a vendor focus on premiumization, supported by promotions and interest-free financing. Apple has leaned heavily on this approach, doubling down on its premium lineup while making devices more attainable through trade-in programs and carrier partnerships. IDC also highlighted the growing importance of on-device generative AI features.
While Apple continues to dominate the premium sector, its performance is closely tied to U.S. carriers. A separate report from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) covering June 2024 to June 2025 found that about three-quarters of iPhone sales in the United States occur through AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
CIRP said overall iPhone loyalty is 89%, climbing to 92% among customers who remain with their carrier but dropping to 79% when users switch providers. The report noted that promotions and in-store staff influence remain significant in determining whether buyers choose iPhone or switch to Android alternatives.
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