Just two months after the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus launched, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes demand for the smartphones has "peaked" in line with a significant monthly shipment decline starting in November.
Kuo predicted Apple's overseas suppliers will revise down their iPhone shipments by 5-15% in November-December due to lower-than-expected demand stemming from a lack of significant improvements.
As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.
In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Kuo noted that the out-of-stock phenomenon that typically follows a new iPhone launch results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand. Kuo reiterated his forecast of a possible year-over-year iPhone shipment decline in the first quarter of 2017 due to the lower-than-expected demand and fierce competition in China.
